Self- and informant report measures have traditionally been used to quantify risk tendencies, but the use of behavioral decision tasks has gained popularity due to their objective measures of decision-making processes. However, evidence of their predictive validity has been sparse. This talk examines the differential predictive validity of a risky decision-making task, the "Cups Task," (Levin & Hart, 2003) which has been shown to detect specific risk-taking differences among clinical and neuropsychiatric patients, maltreated adolescents, older adults, and the general population.
The expanded version of the Cups Task (Weller et al., 2007; allows for the separation of risk-taking to achieve gains versus risk-taking to avoid losses, a fundamental distinction in decision literature. It also assesses expected value sensitivity for each domain, measuring the degree to which individuals make advantageous choices. These distinctions enable tests of the commonly-held belief that reward sensitivity is the primary process underlying risk behaviour.
This talk highlights findings across various populations, demonstrating how Cups Task performance relates to outcomes such as ethical risk-taking, antisocial behaviour, and externalizing disorders. We also examine the degree to which task performance relates to other traits associated with risk behaviours. These findings integrate experimental methods, individual differences, and translational science approaches. We propose that loss-based risk-taking is also a crucial factor to consider when studying the relationship between decision processes and real-world outcomes.
By examining these aspects, we aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the predictive validity of the Cups Task and its implications for risk behaviour research. This integration of methodologies offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between decision-making processes and behavioural outcomes, emphasizing the importance of considering both gain- and loss-based risk-taking in psychological assessments.