3200 - THE EFFECT OF THE ENDPOINT BIAS ON PREDICTIONS OF GLACIER ICE DECLINE

Session: 3196 - PSYCHOLOGICAL PROCESSES AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN THE EUROPEAN SOCIETY
AUTHORS:
Kühne Swen J (Zurich University of Applied Science ~ Zurich ~ Switzerland) , Hartmann Cathérine (Zurich University of Applied Science ~ Zurich ~ Switzerland)
Abstract text:
Underestimating the effects of climate change can reduce the perceived urgency to take action. However, people tend to interpret recent short-term fluctuations in a long-term trend as a reversal of the trend. This tendency is called endpoint bias. In two studies, we explored whether the endpoint bias affects the prediction of glacier ice melting and how a pro-ecological worldview is associated with these estimations. In Study 1, 282 participants were randomly assigned to two conditions in which they read a news report and a graph highlighting either a large decline or a small incline in glacier ice in the last year. Participants predicted a greater decline (-28%) in glacier ice by 2040 if there was a large decline in glacier ice the previous year than if there was a small incline (-18%). In addition, people with a higher pro-ecological worldview score predicted a greater decline. Study 2, with 507 participants, replicated the findings of Study 1. Additionally, a control group was added that had no context information (i.e., the graph and media coverage were not explicitly about glacier ice). This group's predictions of the trend were not influenced by their pro-ecological worldview. The results show that people's perception of climate trends is affected by their worldviews and the results highlight the effect of media coverage that emphasizes only recent events and not the long-term trend.