Introduction：As China faces a persistent decline in fertility rates, identifying effective strategies to boost fertility intentions among reproductive-age youth is a critical societal challenge. While prior research has explored various antecedents, the role of subjective cognitive frameworks—specifically opportunity belief—remains overlooked.


Purpose： The primary objective of this research was to investigate whether opportunity belief significantly predicts fertility intention among Chinese youth and to identify the mediating role of hope (both state and trait hope) in this psychological process.


Method：This research comprised three studies: Study 1 utilized large-scale empirical data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) to establish initial correlations; Study 2 employed an online questionnaire with 305 unmarried young adults (aged 18-35) to measure opportunity belief, fertility intention, and state hope; and Study 3 utilized an experimental priming task to manipulate participants' opportunity belief and trait hope, thereby testing the causal relationship and the mediating effect in a controlled setting.


Results：The findings consistently demonstrated that opportunity belief significantly and positively predicts fertility intention across all three studies. Data analysis revealed that state hope (Study 2) and trait hope (Study 3) both function as significant mediators, indicating that opportunity belief enhances fertility intention by fostering a positive sense of hope for the future.


Conclusions：Collectively, these findings demonstrate that the fertility intention of Chinese youth is significantly influenced by their opportunity belief. This relationship is driven by a psychological mechanism where opportunity beliefs enhance fertility intentions through the cultivation of hope, suggesting that fostering future-oriented optimism is key to addressing fertility declines.