Grounded in Social Exchange and Conservation of Resources theories, this study proposes a Stepping Stone Hypothesis for newcomers (<5 years' tenure). We argue that voluntary turnover reflects both "Push" factors—low pay and long hours indicating perceived inequity and resource depletion—and a "Jump" factor, on-the-job wage growth that, while resource-enhancing, may signal market value rather than relational commitment in early employment exchanges. Using Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (KLIPS) data (4,529 persons; 13,074 observations), turnover was defined as job-sequence change. We employed a dual-approach design: (1) prediction via a 5-fold StratifiedGroupKFold Logit model assessing PR-AUC, and (2) explanation via a Cox proportional hazards model (cluster-robust by person ID, controlling for gender, education, union, and occupation categories). Results supported the Stepping Stone Hypothesis: on-the-job wage growth (the 'Jump' factor) significantly increased turnover hazard (coef = +0.350, p = 0.024), alongside the 'Push' effects of current wage level (−1.017, p < 0.001) and work hours (+0.101, p = 0.002). Predictive accuracy was limited yet non-trivial (mean PR-AUC = 0.120 vs. baseline = 0.086). (When full occupational controls were added, the prediction model failed to converge.) Psychologically, the findings reveal a dual mechanism—resource depletion prompting escape and resource activation fostering opportunity seeking. Within early transactional employment relationships, raises can enhance employability perceptions rather than relational attachment, posing a paradox for HR: rewards may both retain and release. These insights call for applied psychology to integrate exchange-based and motivational resource frameworks when explaining turnover dynamics.