Transitioning to low-carbon technology is a cornerstone of climate policy in many developed countries, yet adoption remains slow. This study applies Diffusion of Innovations (DoI) theory to understand behavioural drivers and barriers to heat pump (HP) and electric vehicle (EV) adoption, offering novel insights for both psychological theory and applied policy.


DoI theory suggests that innovations diffuse through populations in stages (innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority, and laggards) based on perceptions of the technology and social influence. While widely used in modelling technology uptake, DoI has rarely been empirically tested.


We surveyed 1,000 nationally representative adults, assessing adoption intentions and categorising respondents into DoI adopter groups. Participants rated HPs and EVs on five key perception dimensions: relative advantage, compatibility, simplicity, trialability, and visibility. We also measured exposure to communication channels (e.g., media, social networks, professionals) and individual-level traits including environmental concern, risk aversion, and status sensitivity.


Findings reveal a significant deviation from the classic S-curve: while 45% are open to adoption (early majority), nearly 30% are reluctant (laggards), and late majority representation is low. Results from structural equation models show that communication channels influence adopter category by improving perceptions of the technologies, and in particular their relative advantage compared to existing systems. Once these perceptions are controlled for, individual traits beyond environmental concern have little influence.


This study provides the first empirical test of DoI theory in the context of HPs and EVs and highlights the importance of tailored communication. It offers actionable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to shift public attitudes and behaviours toward sustainable heating technologies. The findings also challenge assumptions in agent-based models and contribute to broader discussions on psychological interventions in climate policy.