Introduction: Living in a seismic area characterized by prolonged uncertainty is always challenging for residents and for the local community, due to the constant presence of risk. Bradyseism, a geological phenomenon linked to volcanic activity, is associated to frequent but unpredictable local seismic events. As part of the collaboration between the PNRR RETURN project and the Italian Department of Civil Protection, an exploratory qualitative study is conducted in the Phlegraean Fields to investigate the social-psychological implications of bradyseism.


Purpose: This work examines the social-psychological processes of adaptation in contexts of prolonged uncertainty due to bradyseism in the Phlegraean Fields area.


Methods: Semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in the Phlegraean Fields area (i.e., Pozzuoli, Bacoli, and Quarto) are conducted and analysed using thematic analysis to identify adaptation processes in this context of prolonged uncertainty. The Social-psychological Approach to Resilience for Adaptation (SARA) model, a theoretical-conceptual framework integrating key social-psychological predictors of human adaptation to natural disasters with core constructs from the Conservation of Resources Theory, serves as the theoretical basis for analyzing and interpreting the results.


Results: Preliminary analyses suggest that the four clusters of the SARA model align with themes from stakeholder accounts in the Phlegraean Fields, indicating resources and barriers in adaptive processes under prolonged uncertainty. These insights refine the framework and enhance the understanding of resilience in risk-prone contexts.


Conclusions: Further research will explore the potential compensatory effects among the variables belonging to the four SARA clusters, as well as the identification of distinct resilience profiles within the population. The SARA model shows promise for application across a broader range of resilience scenarios.