Introduction:
According to Holland's RIASEC model, greater congruence between an individual's vocational interest profile and an environment's profile should promote persistence and performance. However, empirical support for this congruence hypothesis has been inconsistent, often due to limitations in how congruence is measured.
Purpose:
This study compared the predictive validity of three approaches in relation to students' persistence and performance: (a) Euclidean distance (ED) between student and environment profiles, (b) profile correlation analysis (PC), the correlation between a student's profile and that of their faculty, and (c) criterion profile analysis (CPA), the similarity of a student's profile with a criterion profile, such as high performers.
Method:
Participants were 2,946 undergraduate and postgraduate students from eight faculties at a South African university who completed the South African Career Interest Inventory (SACII) and a measure of persistence. Academic performance was assessed by aggregating subject marks.
Results:
Across faculties, CPA consistently outperformed ED and PC in predicting both persistence and performance. The mean disattenuated correlation of CPA with persistence was .28. For academic performance, the corresponding mean observed correlations were .19 for undergraduates and .23 for postgraduates.
Conclusion:
CPA appears particularly promising for aligning students with academic and occupational environments. Unlike ED and PC, CPA compares individuals with the profiles of those who persist or perform well, rather than with an average student profile. This enables more precise alignment of interests with successful outcomes. Matching prospective students to high-performing peer profiles may therefore enhance persistence, retention, and achievement. These insights have practical implications for career counselling, educational guidance, and recruitment, supporting evidence-based decision-making that enables individuals to thrive in environments aligned with their interests and strengths.