1047 - FROM FIT TO FORECAST: DEVELOPING A SOFT SKILLS-BASED SITUATIONAL JUDGMENT TEST TO PREDICT JOB PERFORMANCE AND RETENTION IN THE ARMED FORCES

Session: P_D01S005 - Poster Session 5 - Division 1
AUTHORS:
Pereira Adelino (Portuguese Air Force ~ Lisbon ~ Portugal) , Ferreira Aristides (ISCTE - Lisbon University Institute ~ Lisbon ~ Portugal)
Abstract text:
Introduction: Military organizations face persistent challenges in selecting candidates who not only meet cognitive and physical requirements but also possess the soft skills necessary for long-term effectiveness. Traditional selection tools provide limited insights into context-specific behaviors critical for performance and retention.


Purpose: This project aims to design and validate a soft skills-based Situational Judgment Test (SJT) tailored to the Armed Forces. The study examines how behaviorally grounded assessments predict job performance and personnel retention, offering a fairer and more ecologically valid alternative to current methods.


Method: The research adopts a mixed-methods, longitudinal design. Phase one involves qualitative data from subject matter experts to identify critical soft skills and generate military-relevant scenarios. Phase two focuses on pilot testing and psychometric calibration of the SJT using a forced-choice format and multidimensional Item Response Theory. Phase three entails large-scale administration with 600 recruits, followed by longitudinal measurement of job performance, perceived person-job fit, retention, and intention to remain at multiple time points (4-6 weeks, 6 and 12 months). Planned analyses include structural equation modeling, regression, and survival analysis.


Expected Results: It is anticipated that the SJT will demonstrate robust psychometric properties, incremental validity over cognitive and personality measures, and fairness across demographic subgroups. Soft skills are expected to predict both performance and retention, with person-job fit mediating these relationships.


Conclusions: By integrating trait activation and person-job fit theory, this research advances understanding of how soft skills shape long-term outcomes in high-stakes contexts. Practically, it delivers a scalable, evidence-based selection tool capable of reducing attrition, enhancing fairness, and improving alignment between individual capabilities and organizational demands in the military.